Rwanda’s Ruling Party Eyes a Landslide in 2024 Polls

By George Kalisa

Rwandans anticipate the Presidential and Parliamentary elections due July 15 with noticeable unabated political temperatures making headlines as voters approach the polling date.

This last March Rwanda Patriotic Front top brass endorsed President Paul Kagame by 99.1 per cent of votes cast as the party’s flagbearer in the upcoming polls. 

All seems set for the East African Community (EAC) nation to hold the fourth democratic general election since the rule of law returned to the country.  

President Kagame appreciated the trust the party vehemently invests in year election after election, term after term.

“We know where this country has come from, I appreciate the apparent role you have played in that. I also appreciate the trust that you have always and continue to place in me,” remarked Kagame after his endorsement as RPF flagbearer.  

As usual, small political parties, in coalition with RPF, have backed Kagame’s candidature including the Ideal Democratic Party (PDI), Democratic Union of the Rwandan People’s Party (UDPR), Prosperity and Solidarity Party (PSP) and Rwandan Socialist Party (PSR).

“President Kagame puts the needs and interests of all Rwandans ahead of everything else, that is why we have confidence in him and have endorsed him as a candidate in the next year’s election,” said Musa Fazil Harerimana, the PDI President.

PDI dominated the calls for Constitutional amendments to allow President Kagame seek a third term, winding up soon.  

The first democratic election took place in 2003 after the country had enacted the Constitution and breathed life into institutions that had suffered a huge blow during the genocide regimes that masterminded and executed the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi.

More than one million Tutsi were brutally killed by the government backed Interahamwe militias and Hutu extremists in the space of 100 days, and the economy was left in shambles. This genocide was stopped by President Paul Kagame who commanded the Rwanda Patriotic Army (RPA).

Now, there is widespread opinion that Rwanda’s ruling political party, RPF will win both the Presidential and Parliamentary polls come July. The opinion is grounded in the gains of the RPF-Inkotanyi led government in accordance to the seven-year National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) adopted in 2017. The Government set out plans for achieving Vision 2050 for economic development based on lessons learned, successes and challenges met in the 2010-2017 medium-term development strategies.

NST1 (2017-2024) laid down goals in the spheres of economic transformation; social transformation and transformational governance that the government has been implementing in the last seven years.

Political pundits contend that the RPF envisaged victory will ride on the back of the gains registered in the seven-year term ending soon, and here are highlights of some concrete evidence based on to predict the election results. 

At least 91 per cent of the medium-term development strategies have successfully been implemented, a credit that may win support for the current government in the upcoming elections.

According to the Premier Édouard Ngirente, winding NST1 (2017-2024) has not been all roses as the government of Rwanda like others globally encountered unforeseen problems including the Coronavirus, climate change, natural catastrophes altogether leading to economic downturn that led to deleterious economic effects.

While addressing the 19th edition of the National Dialogue Council known locally as Umushyikirano this last January, Ngirente blamed the inadequacy in achievements on global challenges that were beyond the control of his government, and reiterated government’s commitment to continue implementing the rest of the strategies until targets are met. 

In spite of the global challenges alluded to such as COVID-19, the government of Rwanda launched several measures with focus on mitigating particularly the adverse economic effects linked to the pandemic, which included supporting key sectors like Manufacturing, Agro-processing and Real estate.

Owing to the pandemic, the country’s economy sank from 8 per cent to -3.4 between 2010-2020.  

Between 2021-2023 the GoR implemented a two-year Manufacture and Build to Recover Programme (MBRP) to boost economic recovery efforts, which extended the time it was set to close. Through MBRP, the GoR had mobilized investments totaling $1.75 billion and created over 36,000 jobs as of 2022 exceeding the targets by 150% and 132% respectively. 

With such interventions the country maintained economic growth of 6,9 per cent from 2017 up to the third quarter of 2023.

To mitigate effects of rising commodity prices on the international markets caused by high prices of petroleum, government provided subsidies on petroleum products and public transport alongside subsidizing industrial fertilizers.

Relatedly, government purchased 200 buses, 100 of them arrived recently to address the shortage of buses that affected public transport, and the programme that started in the in the City of Kigali will roll out to provinces revealed Ngirente. 

The last seven years have seen Rwanda invest massively in Agriculture the main economic activity to larger proportion of the population. And, it will be far-reaching to uplift the living standards of her people without directing ample resources into the sector.

To this effect, cultivatable land increased to 71,000ha up from 48,000ha in 2017. Investments in commercial modern farming like Gabiro Agribusiness Hub, Nasho and Mpanga irrigation schemes in the Eastern Province are some of the initiatives that account for the rise in arable land.

The amount of fertilizers used per hectare annually rose in the last seven years to 70.3Kgs up from 32Kgs in 2017, and the rise translated in increase in productivity per unit of land, placing Rwanda in the lead in Sub-Saharan Africa where 25Kgs are used per hectare annually.

The fertilizer blending plant in Bugesera with a capacity of producing 100,000 tons complements other fertilizers’ factories in ensuring sustainable supply, and the country stopped importing hybrid seeds in 2021.

Efforts meant to fight soil erosion were heightened during the seven-year term leading to completion of terraces covering 1,147,434 hectares. The shortage in milk production was substantively narrowed and currently more than one million liters up from some 700,000 in 2017, and a milk processing plant with a 650,000 litre capacity per day was constructed due to open.

To boost the movement of goods and people, the Infrastructure Ministry presided over the construction over 1,600Kms of roads connecting provinces. The roads include Base-Rukomo-Nyagatare, Kagitumba-Kayonza-Rusumo, Ngoma-Bugesera-Nyanza, Huye-Kibeho and Pindura-Bweyeye. In addition, some 237Kms of new roads were constructed in the City of Kigali and secondary cities.

Some 3,700 Kms of feeder roads, above the target of 3,000Kms, were constructed to help mostly farmers access markets across the country.  While floodlights were installed along more than 2,160Kms of roads in cities falling below the target of 2,400Kms and the Premier told over 1,500 delegates at the 19th National Dialogue Council that the programme was ongoing.

During the implementation of NST1, over 1.5 million new households accessed electricity increasing the number of household accessing the facility from 34.4% to 74%. And, in effort to increase to safe and clean water, seven processing plants were constructed including Nzove Kanzenze, Gihira, Kanyonyomba, Mwoya, Nkombo and Nyankora as a result the amount of water processed per day nearly doubled. Besides, more than 1,800 water pipes were installed in the cities and over 2,000 in rural areas.

Meanwhile, access to internet services increased following an increase in the kilometres of Fiber optic cable from 3,300 Kms in 2017 to 15,000.   

Other key sectors that registered milestones in the last seven years include Health, Education and Manufacturing.

By and large, the RPF-Inkotanyi led government is likely to ride on the back of the gains it recorded in nearly all the key sectors during the NST1 (2017-2024) in its drive to cause socio-economic transformation